WAND Government Affairs July 2018 E-Newsletter
Tuesday, July 24, 2018
Posted by: Allison Tilque
WAND Government Affairs July 2018 E-Newsletter
Marquette University Law School Poll
The latest Marquette University Law School Poll shows that, even with just four weeks before the primary elections, one in three voters are still undecided on candidates. On July 18th, Charles Franklin, Director of the Marquette Law School Poll released results from the third major poll of the 2018 election season. The poll continues to focus on the Governor and US Senate races, as well as other noteworthy state and federal issues. It also included numbers on President Donald Trump.
· Governor's Race
Governor Scott Walker’s approval rating dipped slightly from the June poll, in which he dropped from 49% to 47%. This is a small decrease and reflects the Governor’s approval rating from this past March. His disapproval rating also dropped two points from 47% to 45%.
In the Democratic primary for governor, State Superintendent of Schools Tony Evers has increased his already commanding lead over the field. Evers garnered support from 31%, which is up from 25% of those polled last month. No other candidate exceeded 6% support. Two candidates polled at 6%, including Fire Fighter Union President Mahlon Mitchell and State Senator Kathleen Vinehout. The next closest was former Democratic Party Chairman Matt Flynn with 5%.
Former State Representative Kelda Helen Roys, who won the Democratic endorsement at her party’s state convention, only obtained support from 2% of those polled in June. Currently, she polls at 3%, with only corporate attorney Josh Pade polling behind her at 0%. Roughly 34% of Democratic primary voters are still undecided. All candidates confirmed they would stay in the race until the primary.
· U.S. Senate Race
In the Republican primary for U.S. Senate, political newcomer Kevin Nicholson lost his lead on State Senator Leah Vukmir by 2 points, which is a 7 point drop since June when he held a 5 point lead. Vukmir won the official endorsement from her party at the State Republican Convention and has support from many Republican members in the legislature. While it appears Vukmir has taken the lead, this race is tightening and should be close until August 14th.
· Foxconn, Tammy Baldwin, President Trump, Tariffs and Immigration
Public opinion on Foxconn deal has changed little since March. 46% of those polled in June and July believe the state is paying Foxconn more than the economic outcome is worth. Just 39% said the project is worth what the state is providing in incentives. Those who believe the Milwaukee area will benefit from Foxconn dropped slightly. In June, 56% said the Milwaukee area would benefit and that number has since dropped to 53% in July.
Senator Tammy Baldwin’s numbers have improved slightly. In March, her approval rating was 37% along with a 39% unfavorable rating. In June, those numbers were 41% and 43% respectively. This month, her approval rating held at 41% but it bested her 40% disapproval rating.
President Donald Trump’s approval rating dropped slightly since June. At that time, 44% in the state approved and 50% disapproved of his job performance. In July, his approval rating sits at 42% with a 50% disapproval rating. which is consistent with numbers nationally.
Of those polled, 55% believe the Trump tariffs on imported goods will hurt the U.S. economy versus 24% who believe they will improve it.
Looking at Trump’s handling of immigration, 40% approve and 53% disapprove. There is a sharp partisan divide on this issue; 74% of Republican approve, 4% of Democrats and 37% of Independents. Of those who disapprove Trump’s handling of immigration, 17% are Republicans, 91% are Democrats and 55% of Independents.
Gubernatorial Candidates File Campaign Finance Reports
It takes money for candidates to get their message to voters, which includes running ads on radio, TV and social media. The general rule is that the person with the most money raised, or rather, and more specifically, the one with the most cash on hand, has the advantage because they have greater resources and more chances to connect directly with voters.
Scott Walker has a commanding advantage with money raised and cash on hand in the Governor’s race. While this is fairly typical of incumbents, Gov. Walker has outraised all of the eight Democratic candidates combined. According to the current finance report, the Governor has roughly $6 million cash on hand, and when combined with his running mate Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch, they have $8.6 million on hand.
The strongest fundraisers in the Democratic field have been Tony Evers, Matt Flynn, Mahlon Mitchell and Kelda Roys. When it comes to cash on hand, Roys leads the field with $688,000, however $255,000 of that is a loan from herself, including a second mortgage worth $235,000 on her home. Matt Flynn has $403,000 on hand, and Evers and Mitchell reported $307,000 and $368,000 respectively.
It is unclear if other candidates will be able to get on TV at this point since the rest of the field has less than $100,000 cash on hand.
Candidates Launch TV Ads
Even though the campaign season started months ago, it might be fair to say it is officially underway now that candidates are running TV ads. While not every candidate has the financial resources to do so, the ones that have the money are making TV a top priority between now and the primary.
You may have already caught some of the ads, but in case you missed them, please take some time to view these ads for Matt Flynn, Kelda Roys, Scott Walker, Tammy Baldwin, Kevin Nicholson, Leah Vukmir and Randy Bryce. While these ads were released by each candidate’s campaign, there also are other ads running on TV and radio that have been paid for by interest groups in support or opposition of a particular candidate.
If you have not seen political or campaign ads, chances are pretty good that you will leading up to the primary on August 14th and general election on November 6